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2018 Q4 Market Commentary

Equity Research • Portfolio Commentary

High Conviction: Navigating the Tech Landscape

Nvidia (NVDA)
GPU MARKET LEADER
Gaming Share
70%
Datacenter Growth
70% YoY
Cash on Hand
$7 Billion

NVDA posted poor Q3 numbers but management expects excess inventory to clear in 1-2 quarters. In the meantime, analysts forecast GPU revenues to grow to $12.7bb by 2020. With GeForce chips dominating gaming and partnerships with Daimler and Volvo for AI-connected cars, NVDA remains a top player in the economy’s fastest-growing secular trends.

Netflix (NFLX)
CONTENT BEHEMOTH
Content Spend
$12 Billion
Paid Subscribers
140 Million
US Penetration
60%

NFLX is experiencing record low churn and record high satisfaction. Their commitment to original content—producing 82 films in 2018—dwarfs Disney and Warner Brothers. NFLX is the replacement of linear TV on a global scale. I believe the game is over concerning streaming; new entrants will be fighting for second or third place.

Amazon (AMZN)
CLOUD & ADVERTISING
AWS Growth
46%
Ad Revenue Growth
120%
TAM (Datacenters)
$70B+

Amazon’s cloud and advertising businesses are growing 2-4x faster than the core business with margins that are 10x better. Despite higher shipping costs, the shift up in the margin profile and Jeff Bezos’s history of innovation make AMZN a premium worth paying for.

Square (SQ)
FINTECH FLYWHEEL
Subscription Growth
155%
Large Seller GMV
52%

Square’s suite of software offerings is perhaps the stickiest flywheel in all fintech. While hardware provides frictionless transactions, the software suite—including CASH App and Payroll solutions—provides the reliable, predictable revenue streams that investors prize.

Mastercard (MA)
GLOBAL PAYMENTS DUOPOLY
Asia Growth Est.
28.8%
ROE (2017)
89.5%
Free Cash Flow
$6 Billion

Mastercard and Visa hold a nearly impenetrable moat. As emerging markets transition away from paper currency, MA is tap-ping into massive tailwinds. With revenue growth estimated at 20% for 2019 and a dominant processing duopoly, MA should be a core holding for many years.