ike capital banner 2017 Stock Market Performance

2017 Stock Market Performance

Year in Review • 2017 Archive

Bull Markets & Old Age: The 2017 Review

Happy New Year! 2017 saw the S&P end up 21.83%. In light of such a strong showing, I’ve been asked if the rally can continue. In short, my answer is yes. From an economic perspective, indicators like Auto Sales and Housing Starts are near cycle highs. Historically, even when they peak, recessions tend to be about a year off.

Market Breadth Indicator

Every S&P 500 Industry Group is trading above its 200-day moving average. In the ten other periods when this occurred since 1990, the S&P was higher three, six, and twelve months later every single time.

We’ve all heard the saying, “Bull markets don’t die of old age and they don’t die because of valuations.” Usually, their demise is the result of an economic downturn or an exogenous shock. The former doesn’t seem to be in the cards, and no one can predict the latter.

The 2017 Scorecard

S&P 500 Return
+21.83%
Large Cap Performance
+19.42%
Intl. Exposure Avg.
+33.84%
Streak
9th Straight Up Year

Volatility & Resilience

2017 saw near-record low volatility with only 8 one-day moves of +/- 1% (the last time that happened was in the mid-60s!). The resilience of this market is best seen in the length of time between pullbacks:

  • 📉 409 Days without a 3% pullback
  • 📉 539 Days without a 5% pullback
  • 📉 676 Days without a 10% pullback (2nd longest on record)

With that being said, the market seems to be in a position to have another good year. As always, please feel free to call with any thoughts or questions.

Regards,
Andre McClure